Paul Finebaum says he can’t find six wins on Arkansas’ 2026 schedule.
After going through it myself, I’m having trouble finding more than two I’d bet on without blinking.
The longtime SEC voice shared his thoughts on Arkansas football’s outlook during Friday’s edition of The Chuck and Bo Show on ESPN Arkansas.
He’s looked at plenty of Razorback schedules over the years and usually spots a path to seven or more wins. Not this time, even for an optimist like him.
“I have not found six wins on that schedule,” Finebaum said.
He’s not alone in that line of thinking either.
Both CBS and Athlon Sports have Arkansas finishing last in the SEC again this season, the same spot the Hogs landed in a year ago. History isn’t on Silverfield’s side, either.
No first-year coach at Arkansas has posted a winning record since Houston Nutt’s debut back in 1998, and the only one to win more than two SEC games since then was Sam Pittman in 2020, during a COVID-shortened all-conference slate.
I get why Finebaum landed where he did.
The Sept. 5 opener against North Alabama is the one game on this slate Arkansas should win without much sweat. Tulsa on Sept. 26 should be win number two, barring something weird.
After that, every single game on the board is a toss-up at best. Road trips to Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Auburn and Texas are all tough outs.
Home dates against Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Missouri and LSU aren’t gimmes either.
Unless other teams get hit hard by injuries or some calls from the officials go Arkansas’ way more than they probably should, it’s hard to picture the Hogs reaching bowl eligibility.
A couple more wins might be possible with a heavy dose of luck and some trends finally flipping after a few rough years, but that’s about as far as I’ll go right now.
Where this team is missing more than just wins
Here’s the bigger problem, and it’s one Finebaum didn’t even get into. Nearly all fans and most media won’t point it out, either.
Ryan Silverfield doesn’t have a single proven playmaker on this roster right now. Not one guy who can take over a Saturday and turn a loss into a win by himself.
Compare that to Chad Morris. Say what you want about his two seasons in Fayetteville, but Morris had at least one or two players who could make something happen on their own. Chad could recruit, he just couldn’t coach.
He still only won two games each year. If a coach with actual difference-makers couldn’t crack three wins, it’s tough to feel good about a roster that doesn’t have any yet.
A look at where extra wins could come from
Razorback Stadium gives the Hogs their best shot at flipping the script, with five home conference games on tap.
South Carolina visits Fayetteville coming off a 4-8 season of its own, and that game looks like Arkansas’ clearest shot at an SEC win.
Missouri comes to town on Halloween too, and the Tigers have plateaued the last two years with back-to-back 8-5 finishes, so that’s another one worth circling.
It will be the eighth game of the year and November will either have folks caring more than they do now or finding a tailgate spot won’t be hard.
A road trip to Utah against fellow first-year coach Morgan Scalley and a visit to Auburn against fellow newcomer Alex Golesh both carry some upset potential as well. Stack those two on top of North Alabama and Tulsa, and six wins suddenly looks a little less impossible.
But “a little less impossible” still isn’t the same as likely.
Until Silverfield finds a guy who can change a game on his own, it’s hard to push back hard on Finebaum or anyone else who isn’t buying into this Arkansas team just yet.
Maybe that guy is on this roster. Who that is nobody knows for sure right now.
