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Schedule has Hogs’ season one that could be good
With the start of the season just days away, it’s time for the annual predictions and the Hogs get breaks from their schedules and also those of their opponents and it could set up a good year.
This time next week we’ll be talking about the season-opening game against Eastern Illinois, so it’s time now to start making predictions.
Last year, I picked a 6-6 record before the first game. They should get that this year at the very least just because the schedule sets up about as well as Chad Morris is ever going to see.
Plus, as usual, I’m ignoring the national dunderheads who quite simply look at the records from last year, view a coaching change and see if a starting quarterback is returning and throw something out there.
This Arkansas team will be better than last year.
Bret Bielema didn’t recruit players that played in his system. That’s why it didn’t work, quite simply. He kept trying to fit round pegs into square holes and never seemed to grasp why it wasn’t working. He recruited players that played Morris’ system.
Last year’s players and coaches all sounded like they were trying to talk themselves into being good. The coordinators, Dan Enos on offense and Paul Rhoads on defense, too often sounded like they were trying not to lose instead of winning.
That appeared to carry over to the players, who did not play up to their ability level.
The change in attitude from coaches and players is night and day from last season. Especially the players, who are bouncing around most of the time.
Even when Morris wasn’t happy about things at practices there was more pep in the step at a good practice last year.
After being at every practice availability for the media this year, this team isn’t that bad. The offense is going to be better, no matter who the quarterback is going to be.
I’ve listened to everybody try to figure out which quarterback will play based on what they think this offense is going to be.
Just go back to what Morris has said on a couple of occasions. His “system” is designed for what the players he has available do best. In other words, if passing works best then they’ll fling it around. If the quarterback is better at running then he’ll run, if he throws it better he’ll pass.
There is NO definitive way a quarterback has to fit in the offense.
He just has to make decisions quickly … and correctly.
And I don’t think we’ll know that for awhile. In fact it wouldn’t surprise me if the quarterback that starts Saturday won’t be the starter the next week at Colorado State.
Having said all of that, here’s my take on the season:
LIKELY WINS
Eastern Illinois, Colorado State, North Texas, Tulsa, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt
The four nonconference opponents are there quite simply because Michigan cancelled their series and the Hogs got a waiver from the league on playing a Power 5 opponent.
Thank you, SEC.
Ole Miss will have some offensive pop. Their defense couldn’t keep a good high school team from scoring. In Little Rock there will be a bunch of Rebels’ boosters because it’s close and affordable. It won’t help.
Vanderbilt is, well, still Vandy.
LIKELY LOSS
Alabama is the only one I’m willing to put in that category. You may think I’m crazy, but stay with me.
NEEDING HELP
The Hogs will not be favored against Auburn, LSU or Mississippi State. And I’m not going to put all three of those games in the preseason win column, but it may not be as big a hill to climb as you think.
The schedule sets up pretty well, remember?
Auburn will play two emotional and big games before hosting the Hogs down on The Plains. They open with Washington, have a rent-a-win, then LSU in a chance to redeem themselves from last year’s second-half meltdown.
The Tigers will have to get up three of the first four weeks of the season. Not predicting a Razorback win here, but it’s a game to keep an eye on.
The Hogs have an off date before hosting LSU after the Tigers play Alabama. They could have 5-6 losses by that time after having played Miami, Auburn, Florida, Georgia and Mississippi State in addition to the Crimson Tide.
And, finally, we come to Mississippi State the week before Thanksgiving and before playing the Hogs, the Bulldogs play Alabama. In addition, they will have played (in order) Florida, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M.
As we said, the schedule sets up well for Arkansas this year. I think right now Arkansas will win one of those, putting them at seven for the season.
THE TOSS-UP GAMES
Texas A&M and Missouri are a pair of teams people aren’t really looking closely at the actual facts before throwing them both in the doubtful category.
First, the Aggies are, well, the Aggies and no matter who they bring in as coach he’ll find out why others haven’t won championships in College Station.
Jimbo Fisher isn’t the first coach in this position at A&M. They hired, over the last several decades, Bear Bryant, Gene Stallings, Emory Bellard (when he was the master of the Wishbone), Jackie Sherrill (where he had gone 50-9-1 over five seasons), Dennis Franchione from Alabama, Mike Sherman (offensive guru from the NFL) and Kevin Sumlin (hottest rising coach in Group of 5).
None of them won a national title. Something goofy always screwed it up or they just flat never got close enough to really smell it.
Fisher will find out the same thing and now there are allegations from a former player that he was paid cash by an assistant coach. Hello NCAA. They know their way to College Station, by the way.
And Arkansas should have beaten the Aggies three of the last four years. The talent differential hasn’t been THAT great.
They are also changing offenses, going the opposite direction of Arkansas. We’ll see how that works out for Jimbo in the SEC.
Then we come to Missouri, who is doing much of the same things offensively with the hiring of Derek Dooley as offensive coordinator, who is putting in a more pro-style offense with maybe the best quarterback in the league in Drew Lock.
Dooley hasn’t done anything impressive as a coach.
It’s not unlikely the Hogs split these two games and could win both.
THE FINAL PREDICTION
Arkansas goes 8-4 this year, based on some favorable scheduling through no masterful looking ahead (it was basically luck) and the way some key opponents’ schedules have fallen into place.
With a little luck it could be better. If injuries hit key spots, it could be worse.
But I think that’s how it will play out.
(STANDARD DISCLAIMER: Like Congress, I reserved the right to revise and extend these comments and prediction throughout the season, depending on how things play out.)
