After last year’s disaster, anything beyond four wins for Arkansas fans will be a step forward for some while others figure they won’t win all of the non-conference games.

Such is life with Razorback fans. Some of them determine the entire fate of the program on each snap of the ball.

But here’s to a ray of hope. In addition to four games out of the league that should be winnable, there are some SEC teams on the schedule who will be backing up from last year … you can count on it.

One of the most accurate things I ever heard came from Lou Holtz back in spring practice of 1978 after the Hogs had just gone 11-1, finished third in the country and beat Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.

Lou was trying to temper the predictions for 1978 as folks had the Razorbacks beating everybody on the schedule about 90-0 or something like that.

“Last year has nothing to do with this year,” Lou said.

Over the years that has proven to be one of the most accurate statements ever made.

This year that could be a dangerous way to predict the SEC West … after you get past putting Alabama somewhere near the top. While LSU and Texas A&M should be good again. Whether they are better or not, well, that’s up in the air.

The interesting part is everybody else.

Arkansas will likely be picked at the bottom. That really doesn’t matter, though, because the only thing that matters is where you finish.

As we said, though, you probably could put the four teams below those top three mentioned earlier in a bag, shake ’em up and pour ’em out and get about as good of a guess as anybody else.

Yes, I’m putting Auburn in there, too. The only thing evident down there is the football program appears to be in chaos just a year after they committed $7 million a year to make sure Gus Malzahn stays there.

Now he may not be there by Halloween.

To say Gus has a short leash may be an understatement. Considering he collapsed after he got his new contract might be an understatement. The Tigers are 8-7 since reportedly flirting with the Hogs after Bret Bielema was fired.

After an 8-5 season that pleased absolutely no one at Auburn, there was a juggling of the coaching staff and now Gus is taking over the offense again, which is drawing mixed reviews.

Their schedule has six conference games in the first eight, including Oregon, Texas A&M, Florida and LSU. Half of their first eight games are on the road, including a trip to Fayetteville on October 19.

If the Tigers are 6-2 heading into November it will be surprising.

Something similar is happening at Mississippi State that had the same record as Auburn last year (8-5), but had four players among the first 44 players taken in the draft and a first-year coach in Joe Moorhead, who didn’t appear to do a lot to keep his offensive coordinator from going to the Green Bay Packers.

Moorhead is taking over much of that and has road trips to Auburn, Tennessee and Texas A&M in the first eight games … and LSU at home. If MSU is at 4-4 heading into November that will be shocking.

Ole Miss may be in the worst shape of all. When a relatively inexperienced head coach fires both coordinators and loses the top playmakers off a 5-7 team (1-7 in the SEC), there are no questions about changes.

While the NCAA basically slapped the Rebels on the wrist, the long and drawn-out investigation has taken it’s toll in terms of instability within the program under two head coaches and a revolving door for coaches and players.

Kentucky had a dream 10-3 season last year and lost their best playmakers on both sides of the ball to the NFL. Losing players isn’t necessarily a bad thing, unless it’s the guys who make the plays that got you those 10 wins.

Finally, Missouri at the end of the Hogs’ schedule won’t be playing for a bowl game. They are on probation for a year because their administration couldn’t handle the NCAA properly and you always wonder what’s going to happen in that situation, plus they aren’t exactly loaded with talent. Kelly Bryant and quarterback isn’t an upgrade from Drew Lock.

That’s five teams on Arkansas’ schedule that won’t be improved over last year.

When you look at the playmakers they lost and the folks they are trying to replace them with, well, they won’t be as good.

At a couple of places throw in staff changes to an already rocky situation and the potential for chaos is there.

Yes, I know Alabama had a major shuffle, too, and they aren’t mentioned much here. They still have the best talent in the league.

And Nick Saban’s still there.