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First game in fall ‘spring practice’ tough one against LSU
Arkansas basically had a week of fall practice last week that likely was the first one in what will likely be four weeks of workouts a little different than most teams playing out the schedule.
That’s the case with Chad Morris as the Razorbacks are 2-7 headed into the final quarter of the season with three games where they will be decided underdogs.
Historically, that’s the place where Arkansas usually does the best.
The Hogs, over the last 60 years, have pulled more than a couple of shockers when little was expected of them. We could go all the way back to 1960 when the Hogs stunned a highly-ranked Texas team in Austin, 24-23, for the first big win of the Frank Broyles period.
This situation is remarkably similar to that one.
The Longhorns started that season at No. 4 in the country and lost on the opening weekend to Nebraska at home.
Texas entered their October matchup against the Hogs with that one loss and a No. 11 ranking. They finished 7-3-1, tying No. 9 Alabama, 3-3, in the Bluebonnet Bowl in Houston.
Arkansas won the game a week after losing to Baylor in Fayetteville, 28-14. They went on to the first conference title for Broyles (and the first of three straight) in his third year with the Hogs.
But let’s keep it limited to LSU in more modern times:
• The Razorbacks were going nowhere in 2008 and stunned LSU in Little Rock.
• In 2007, Houston Nutt’s last game was in Baton Rouge against the top-ranked Tigers and the Hogs won in three overtimes.
• LSU thought it was headed to the Sugar Bowl, but took a detour in Little Rock and the Hogs ended up there after a 31-23 win.
• Bret Bielema hadn’t won a game in the SEC by the time a November matchup with the Tigers rolled around in 2014 and the Hogs won, 17-0.
• To add more shock to that, Bielema took his best team to Baton Rouge the next season and got a 31-14 win.
Considering Bielema’s SEC record during his five years, Les Miles may have been fired for being 1-2 against the Hogs in his three matchups with Bielema. Remember, Miles was gone by the time they met in 2016.
All of that’s fine and well, you say, but this Arkansas team is not as good as any of those teams.
While that is true from the record, the potential is there for an LSU team to be as down as any Tigers team seen in recent memory.
Tigers coach Ed Orgeron said before the game against Alabama last week it was THE game this year for Alabama. After LSU was curb-stomped at home by the Crimson Tide, well, ol’ Ed sounded like was the one who took the beating.
And he promptly threw his players under the bus in the view of some in the media when he said they needed to get better players. That’s shades of what he did when he was coaching Ole Miss … he ended up losing his last two teams there and his job.
What does all that mean?
The Hogs may have a shot. It’s certainly a long shot, but these days they’ll take anything they can get in a season filled with more negatives than positives.
I learned a long time ago never to pick a hunch you wouldn’t put cash money on, so I’m not ready to go there, but I think it could be close.
LSU 31, +13.5 Arkansas 29
In our little competition, we have going here, I took some unusually wild guesses at longshots on games, trying my best to get Peter Morgan back in it and stumbled to a 1-4 finish, lowering the overall season mark to 62-9.
Peter proved up to the challenge … and only picked up a game to close within five games with a 58-18 record with three weeks left in the season.
South Carolina at -6 Florida
Well, the Gators tripped and fell flat on their snouts against Missouri at home last week. Both teams are 6-3 overall and 4-3 in the league.
But Florida is at home, you say. Well, they were last week, too, and got kicked all over the field by Missouri.
However … Dan Mullen will have a full week to sort out the quarterback issues the guess here is it will be either a complete meltdown by the Gators and I’ll never pick them again or they have it figured out.
I’ll go with the latter, but not to cover the spread.
Florida 30, South Carolina 28
Vanderbilt at -16.5 Missouri
Apparently, the oddsmakers think the Tigers will be pumped and on a roll after surprising Florida last week on the road.
And apparently they didn’t see the Vandy game against Arkansas two weeks ago.
Oh, the Tigers will win, but they won’t cover the spread (not that it matters for our contest here, which is the disclaimer Peter might use if he invokes Florida voting rules at the end).
Missouri 38, Vanderbilt 31
Ole Miss at -13 Texas A&M
The Rebels are free and clear of NCAA issues and go to Texas A&M, which is reeling after Mississippi State tap-danced on them in Starkville last week.
Ole Miss has a high-flying offense and a defense that can’t stop anybody but Arkansas’ second team.
While the Aggies are, well, the Aggies so anything could happen, but I’ll go with A&M having this game at Kyle Field.
Texas A&M 49, Ole Miss 41
Mississippi State at -24 Alabama
CBS has tried its best to paint this as an actual matchup. The fact they have this as the marquee game goes to the power of the Crimson Tide in drawing viewers.
Here’s the analysis: Alabama wins … big
Alabama 49, Mississippi State 13
-5.5 Kentucky at Tennessee
While there is somewhat of a feeling here that the Wildcats could be having a letdown after finding out last week how far they are from being at the top of the SEC East.
I would actually consider an upset here if the Vols weren’t so predictably bad. I mean, they are bad unless the other team just ups and takes the week off like Auburn did last month.
The difference is Kentucky has a running game to lean on … the Tigers don’t.
Kentucky 24, Tennessee 13
Auburn at -14 Georgia
With Gus Malzahn being told this week he’ll be back on The Plains next year, there isn’t a lot of pressure and who knows how that plays out.
The Bulldogs, however, are still vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Auburn’s simply trying to avoid playing a bowl game in Birmingham this year.
But they have a gimme next week against Liberty so they should have seven wins in the bag and that’ll get them out of Birmingham for the bowl game.
Georgia 35, Auburn 21
