ANDY’S PICKS: Liberty probably not a pushover for Razorbacks

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Parity may have arrived in the SEC and that might include Arkansas, sitting at 5-3 along with more than 25% of the entire league.

Everybody in the SEC West has at least one league loss and the final month of the season is going to provide separation of some sort one way or the other.

The Razorbacks have a chance to have a big say in all of that, but it won’t be this weekend.

About the only thing at stake for Sam Pittman’s Hogs is getting a win Saturday over Liberty that could help them jockey for a better bowl game and it would put them in a bowl somewhere with any kind of victory.

The Flames are the ranked team (23rd) while the Hogs have fallen out of the rankings, but are keeping hopes alive with wins over Brigham Young and Auburn in their past two games.

A loss to Liberty would dash a lot of the expectations around this team that are probably lowered back to reality a little with three straight losses.

After this one, the road starts to get a lot more difficult … even with two of the last three games at home.

LSU and Ole Miss are still holding out hopes for a trip to Atlanta and an SEC West title. Who knows about LSU, who faces Alabama this week and Ole Miss gets the Crimson Tide next week.

The Hogs can play a huge role in determining the West and shoot themselves back into the rankings and getting near the top of the West.

Being on top at the end is the longest of longshots and will require a lot of helps from a lot of teams.

This week, though, is probably the focus and should be. A loss to the Flames could have side effects that could have an impact on their remaining SEC games.

A win, though, guarantees a bowl. A big win puts them a step closer to a better postseason trip.

The Hogs are a 14.5-point favorite, which sounds about right … if Liberty’s injury reports are accurate to a couple of key players.

A nagging thought, though, is Hugh Freeze knows how to build a winner, even in the SEC. Liberty doesn’t have an SEC roster, but Freeze has as much of an offensive mind as anybody the Hogs have faced.

Hogs 28, Liberty 35

Jadon Haselwood (Ted McClenning / HitThatLine.com)

SEC Picks

Kentucky at Missouri (Even): When this happens usually somebody is seeing something nobody else can readily detect. The Wildcats are dropping like a rock in a lake while the Tigers seem to be consistently average. This year in the SEC that’s an awful lot of teams, which may speak to parity more than a drop-off. Just call this pick a slight hunch because Kentucky has the better quarterback. Wildcats 31, Tigers 27

Florida at Texas A&M (-3): The Aggies are favored in this game simply because they are the home team. The Gators can take a huge step in Billy Napier’s re-building project there and Jimbo Fisher knows a loss is going to bring out the howling from a fan base that isn’t paying him millions every year for a losing record. They manage to keep things close just about every game they lose, which means they are due either for a huge breakout win or that loss that starts folks screaming. The guess here is really neither. Aggies 27, Gators 24

1 Tennessee at 3 Georgia (-9): Maybe the biggest game the Vols have played in over two decades and they are two-score road underdogs. The Bulldogs appeared to have found some offense after getting some players over their injuries. Tennessee has offense … and a lot of it. Georgia is getting a lot of defensive respect based on recent history and they are defending national champions. But the guess is this game comes down to scoring a lot of points and the Vols probably don’t have enough defense. Bulldogs 35, Vols 30

6 Alabama (-13.5) at 10 LSU: After a couple of years taking a break from really good games, get ready. The guess here is things will be back to normal. The Tigers have a very good roster of players. Unfortunately for them, though, the Crimson Tide maybe have a few more. The rule of thumb here says Nick Saban is a two-touchdown difference-maker but Brian Kelly won 113 years at Notre Dam before coming to Baton Rouge. He’s won a few big games. Probably not over Alabama this year, though. Crimson Tide 35, Tigers 27

Auburn at Mississippi State (-12.5): First game for an interim coach and while springs eternal every time this happens, it seldom translates to what happens on the field. The Tigers now have players jumping into the transfer portal while all the Bulldogs lost in this whole deal is an athletics director. Mike Leach might be wanting to make some sort of statement here. Bulldogs 34, Tigers 17

South Carolina (-6.5) at Vanderbilt: Bless their hearts, but the Commodores can’t be accused of taking a few for the home team. They stay in the SEC because of tradition and not their football strength. The Gamecocks are 5-3 overall and are better than anyone predicted before the season, but they aren’t quite ready to challenge for any trips to Atlanta. Gamecocks 28, Vanderbilt 21