Despite what we’ve heard from Arkansas coaches in the past week, this one shouldn’t be close.
Arkansas should have control of South Carolina by halftime and debating whether to put the backups in or not by the start of the fourth quarter.
Seriously.
Players and coaches have extolled the virtues of Gamecocks quarterback Jake Bentley all week long. We’ve heard how he’s smart, the son of a coach and never gives up.
All of it true.
And if South Carolina had anybody else of his quality, this one might be close. But the good players they do have — and maybe their best — is injured and won’t be playing.
When Deebo Samuel went down, so did the Gamecocks’ best chance of having a special season for Will Muschamp in his second year. Then when over half of the offensive line got banged up, well, they will come limping into this one.
The Hogs, on the other hand, are the healthiest they have been and will be for the rest of the season.
With no bye weeks the rest of the way (well, there is Coastal Carolina in early November, which will basically be an uncontrolled scrimmage), Arkansas has to get a win in this game or things will get REALLY interesting the rest of the way just to make a bowl game.
The metrics tell the entire story. South Carolina’s offense is anemic. They have averaged just over 84 yards a game on the ground and slightly over 251 through the air.
Unless every defense they’ve played against is far better than Arkansas’, they can’t generate enough offense to win.
The Gamecocks can’t run the ball. They run only to give the receivers a chance to catch their breath.
But they balance it by not being able to pass the ball well without Samuel.
Defensively, they stop the run, a Muschamp requirement for any team he’s ever coached, including his assistant days. South Carolina has given up just over 153 yards a game on the ground, but 253.8 through the air.
Don’t be surprised to see the Hogs come out throwing to try and loosen thigs up to run the ball late. That was what first Norv Turner, then Ernie Zampese did with Emmitt Smith at Dallas in the early 1990’s.
You get the idea that’s what Dan Enos and Bret Bielema want to do at Arkansas. They don’t have the players required to do that now and likely never will. Alabama doesn’t have that kind of talent.
The Hogs will win this game … big.
As I said earlier, they should be ahead by a couple of touchdowns at halftime, pull away more in the third quarter.
Don’t worry about some big fourth-quarter comeback. South Carolina doesn’t have the players to pull it off.
Just don’t get carried away, fans.
Alabama is next week.
Then Auburn, who’s defense may be as good as the Crimson Tide and they are finding an offensive rhythm with Jarrett Stidham, who is grading out at the top (along with Alabama’s), according to SEC Country’s quarterback grades.
The next two weeks is why Arkansas can’t let down from what should be a fairly routine win over an SEC team that is down and maybe out.
A win doesn’t guarantee anything.
But a loss could spell trouble in a BIG way.
