As I said in my preseason prediction column, like Congress I reserve the right to revise and extend any prediction made in August.
Didn’t think it would be less than two full weeks into September when it happened.
There are some things happening around the SEC that have made revisions necessary and it’s not just with Arkansas.
Looking at those first:
Texas A&M has more problems than a one-legged man in a tail-kicking contest
Thank goodness they are next on the Razorbacks’ schedule with an off week to get ready. They were in the fourth quarter tied with Nicholls on Saturday night before pulling away at the end.
The Aggies are struggling at quarterback and in the area of self-confidence. They will get another chance to warm up before the gathering in Arlington, hosting Louisiana at 11 a.m. Saturday.
If they get back on track in that game, well, it’s going to be game on in Jerry’s World. Otherwise, it’s going to be an interesting one.
I had this as a Hog win in August, but I’m moving it into the toss-up category.
Ole Miss, Mississippi State timing bad for Hogs
Both teams have offenses that are light years ahead of TCU. They eat up yardage in chunks and Arkansas doesn’t have a single receiver that would get into the six-man rotation at receiver for the Rebels.
I’m also not sure they have a cornerback that can guard any of those receivers, either.
The good news is their defense isn’t good, but I don’t think the Hogs can score with them and the timing is bad … a road trip to Oxford after back-to-back games against Alabama and Auburn.
I’m putting Ole Miss in the Likely Loss category to join Mississippi State and South Carolina, which shoves the overall record to 5-6.
Mississippi State just looks like a team that can challenge Auburn and LSU to jump into the spot behind Alabama in the West (and nobody is going to cause the Tide any trouble this year).
South Carolina is just a better team than Arkansas right now and I’m not sure Missouri isn’t, either, but that one is too far away to change from a Likely Win.
Early bye week is going to be a problem
Having a bye week after the second game is a problem that nobody is going to notice until we get midway through October … or the Ole Miss game.
Bielema’s teams have hit a midseason wall. Last year they collapsed against Auburn after the sixth week, although they were struggling for two weeks before that, losing to Alabama and hanging on to down Ole Miss.
This year they’ll get the Rebels after two very physical run-heavy opponents in Alabama and Auburn that will likely just beat the Hogs into submission.
In 2015, Arkansas was 2-4 going into the bye week, then caught new fire and finished strong.
That team had more players than this one.
The bottom line now
Arkansas will beat New Mexico State and Coastal Carolina and, maybe, Missouri.
That means they almost have to win at Texas A&M in two weeks to have a shot at a bowl game. With attrition through injuries, etc., it’s rare for a team to keep all of its players at the same level through the season.
It’s impossible for a team to get up for every game.
I think they get a win against either Texas A&M or Ole Miss.
And finish 5-6.
Which will create some interesting times.
