PETE’S PICKS: Looking at Saturday’s thriller of an opener

FAYETTEVILE, Ark. — Usually, some of us Razorback fans wait anxiously during the final week of the off-season, take one last glance at the schedule, and attempt to resolve our fear of having a bad season.

“Well, if things do not work out for us, we will have our strength of schedule to publicly blame.”

Unfortunately, for those who fall back on this philosophy will need to find an alternate piece of mind if our flagship program does not meet the median of expectations in 2023.

We could go back-and-forth on where the strength of schedule falls for Arkansas this year. Different media outlets each have their own formula for determining where each school should rank. I have seen the Hogs as low as in the 60’s but as high as the upper-20’s. Throw out the highest and the lowest, and the overall consensus has Arkansas’s strength of schedule seemingly in the lower-30’s.

I know, I know. Your friend read where ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has the Razorback schedule proudly in the Top Ten at the 6^th position. Short disclaimer: While used as a metric, our traditional thoughts of what define a strength of schedule and ESPN’s FPI are not the same thing.

Regardless, our first opponent of this season might help explain our drop in the SOS rankings, and I am totally okay with it. For years, when other SEC teams have scheduled their non-conference opponents, their cupcakes have had a little softer dough than has Arkansas’s.

The Western Carolina Catamounts roll into Little Rock to take on Arkansas on Saturday, Sept. 2, at 12:00 inside War Memorial Stadium. Not much is known about WCU outside of they seem to have a pass-heave offense often labeled as “explosive.

If that is the case, then this would be the perfect early-season test for what little we know of on-the-field performance by Arkansas’s defense led by new defensive coordinator Travis Williams. The Catamounts may be just enough of a talented FCS team to see what areas can be a focus for improvement for both Williams and Arkansas coach Sam Pittman.

This learning will also carry over to Arkansas’s offensive side of the ball, yet not quite as much. There is already a strong perception of success with Arkansas returning starters KJ Jefferson at quarterback, running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, and offensive linemen Beaux Limmer and Brady Latham.

The question mark is around a new offensive coordinator, Dan Enos. I say “new” knowing full-well we have seen multiple years of a Dan Enos offense in the past as he served as our offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach from 2015 to 2017. Opinions vary on the success Enos had during his time here, and it is also up for debate on whether or not his offensive style (from our experiences with him) will prove efficient in today’s SEC.

Why Western Carolina will Win

Okay, I am trying to be completely subjective here, but it is difficult to honestly sit at my keyboard and pound out reasons why the Catamounts can pull off a victory at War Memorial.

Granted, I was criticized for my recent predictions for Arkansas’s 2023 campaign, but I was upfront with my homer bias in my thoughts, not to mention, sometimes we just have to cut loose and not be so serious.

That said, I am solemn when I say WCU is returning a lot of starters and players with significant playing time including quarterback Cole Gonzales who split reps last season but has defined himself as the clear starter this season.

Their offensive line is big. Really big. Pittman has been quoted as saying there may be multiple future NFL players in the trenches for WCU.

Lastly, bigger upsets have happened, and Arkansas somehow has a niche in scaring its fans during games we should easily win.

Why Arkansas will Win

We are better at offense against WCU’s defense than WCU’s offense will be against our defense. This little toss of word salad is basically the object of football; however, I cannot remember a game in recent history which better fits this phrase.

Tommy Craft even mentioned something to the effect of “this game will not be close, but it will be closer than many people think.” All considerations given, the Catamounts will score multiple times against our uncertain defense, yet our more dominant offense will make more trips to the endzone.

KJ Jefferson put in extra beach work in the off-season. Listen, I cannot sit here and say I am completely familiar with what KJ has done in previous between-season workouts, and, normally, when you hear your quarterback is at the beach, you worry about their lack of focus and preparation.

KJ gave us just the opposite. Word is he spent hours upon hours in San Diego improving his footwork, strength, and technique as he enters his final campaign with the Razorbacks. No doubt this dedication to improve will pay off.

Both coordinators have something to prove. As mentioned, both Enos and Williams are in their freshman campaigns calling signals on ‘The Hill.”

Neither will want a let-down to start off the season as they hope to build confidence in the players and hype with the fans. Let’s not also forget trust is a big deal to most football coaches. They will want to start earning it Saturday. Arkansas 45 – 17

Random Thoughts

Arkansas has struggled with a consistent secondary the past few seasons. I know the staff is trying to permanently fix (and not just patch) that integral part of the team. We will learn a lot about our defense Saturday.

It is far easier to make conference predictions after seeing how each team performs in Week 1. Therefore, I will be watching closely how are SEC allies perform and releasing my division projections in the upcoming week.

TRIVIA QUESTION: In Week One of the 1992 season, Jack Crowe lost his head coaching job at Arkansas after losing 10 – 3 to the Citadel in Fayetteville. By what school did Coach Crowe get hired the following season to serve as its offensive coordinator?

Sam Pittman also has a lot to prove for himself and his coaching staff as well. That will play into this game and this season.

No traceable amounts of alcohol were consumed during the writing of this opinion piece.

TRIVIA ANSWER: The Baylor Bears hired Crowe in 1993 and kept him throughout 1995. Crowe later served as head coach at Jacksonville State where he pulled off a similar Week One upset against his former assistant coach at Arkansas. That coach was Houston Nutt, who was (at the time) the head coach at Ole Miss.

Thank goodness football season is upon us!

Be certain to listen to the game Saturday at Noon via HitThatLine.com and on the air at ESPN Arkansas 99.5 in Fayetteville, 95.3 in the River Valley, 96.3 in Hot Springs and 104.3 in Harrison-Mountain Home.

SEC Picks for Week 1

Change for this year: I am only picking three games of my choosing based upon the level of importance and perceived level of competitiveness.  

Massachusetts at Auburn: It is not often we get to pick a game involving the Minutemen. Plus a lot of people will be tuning into this game to see if any early improvements have been made by new Tiger head coach, Hugh Freeze. Auburn by 24.

(21) North Carolina at South Carolina: There is still enough of a rivalry here to make this an interesting match-up. I sit strongly in the Shane Beamer camp of potential, and, despite this home game being played in Charlotte, we may just have an upset in the making as South Carolina slow-rolls its way to improvement. Gamecocks by 10.

(5) LSU at (8) Florida State – GAME OF THE WEEK: We get to wait an extra day for this one. The Camping World Kickoff in Orlando on Sunday will be the best college football contest in the nation this weekend. LSU quickly returned their program to its previous glory following a couple of down years with Ed Orgeron at the helm despite them having won the national championship in 2019. The Tigers also seek to avenge a 1-point loss to FSU last season. The Seminoles enter the season boasting they have a more than solid chance at making the College Football Playoff this year. Week One will go a long way in determining who gets a strong foothold on the young season. Tigers by 14.

Back to WCU at Arkansas; check in during the game for all the highlights and updates from Saturday’s contest.

Thank you to all my readers who support me week after week. I am also appreciative of my wife who gives me permission to watch sports all weekend long. Nothing passive-aggressive to see here, folks.

 Find me on ‘X’: @PeterMorganWPS And a $10 gift certificate to the fast food restaurant of your choice if you can get Andy Hodges to follow me.

Go HOGS!!!