FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Nobody has thought since the schedule dropped months ago Arkansas had much of a risk against Mississippi State on Saturday. They thought the same thing last year.

No, you don’t get to go back after the fact and come up with excuses for failure. That 7-3 loss last October got offensive coordinator Dan Enos fired as the season started swirling downward. Could the same thing happen this year?

It likely won’t (that shouldn’t be a spoiler alert), but don’t get too cocky. Weird games have been played in this entire series since they started playing each other in 1992. Just about every year, Razorback fans put this game into the win column in their summer projections.

But then you realize Hogs coach Sam Pittman is 2-2 against the Bulldogs. Chad Morris’ teams were 0-2. Bret Bielema won one single game against State (he invented a couple of ways to lose games). Even Bobby Petrino got out-coached by Sylvester Crooom and Bulldogs’ offensive coordinator Woody McCorvey in 2008.

The coach that dominated State for 10 years was Houston Nutt, who lost the first time he played them in 1998 when he left his field goal kicker in Fayetteville after a loss to Tennessee.

Throw out the projections. We should have learned long ago thtat really doesn’t mean much in this series. Even ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Arkansas just a 60.3 percent chance of winning. Considering the Hogs are 4-3 while the Bulldogs are 1-6 that says something.

Maybe what says even more is the betting line. You don’t have to pay attention to that just for gambling reasons, it’s a pretty good indicator of how the game is going to be. It’s remarkable to see how accurate those things are, mainly because they have guys setting it that really know what they’re doing.

The Razorbacks are a 7-point favorite at BetSaracen. Do with that what you want but history says it may be pretty accurate, especially this year in the SEC. Don’t get too worked up either way until the fourth quarter. Mississippi State has an offense that seems to get better as the game goes.

All of that’s why I’m going to just hold my breath making this pick. Hogs 30, Bulldogs 28

Pete Morgan has been really quiet this week. After taking the Razorbacks to win by 7  over LSU, the result was rather humbling. Everybody else in the SEC was fairly even, winning some and losing some. Handicapping games this season across the league is almost impossible because the old models of doing it simply don’t work as well in the transfer portal and NIL era.

Oklahoma at (18) Ole Miss: It’s Friday after the Sooners were blown out by South Carolina. If they were still playing the game I’m not certain Oklahoma would have put up a touchdown. The Rebels have been on a bye week and teams have stumbled coming off that break in routine this year, but the Rebels know they can’t afford to drop another game the rest of the way and still make the playoffs. Ole Miss 36, Oklahoma 9 (no touchdowns)

(21) Missouri at (15) Alabama:   Considering both of these teams started the year in the Top 10, this is somewhat unusual. Much moreso at Alabama, which is not used to these kinds of problems for the last 20 years. The Crimson Tide have fallen apart, maybe relaxing because Arkansas isn’t on the schedule anymore. The Tigers might have been a little over-rated before the season, but they haven’t even performed to low expectations. Alabama 34, Missouri 21

(5) Texas at (25) Vanderbilt: Poor Vandy. They may find out what Arkansas fans have known for a century. Just when you get a good season rolling, along comes Texas and de-rails everything. The Longhorns are going to be mad about their faceplant against Georgia last week and going to Nashville is as good of a place to start feeling better as anywhere. Texas 35, Vanderbilt 17

(8) LSU at (14) Texas A&M: Of all the legendary coaches that have come through College Station, could Mike Elko end up being the one who delivers a national title they haven’t won since before World War II? Nobody saw that coming when the Aggies fired Jimbo Fisher, but he did recruit a lot of the players there. Elko may be a better overall coach, though. Texas A&M 27, LSU 24

Auburn at Kentucky: If this isn’t Pete’s “Good Grief” game, he missed. Oh, it may be close, but outside of that eagle that flies over the stadium and a guy selling limber in a bright yellow cowboy outfit on a horse does anybody really care? This game is like a couple of dogs barking across the fence at each other. Auburn 21, Kentucky 20