54.2 F
Fayetteville

Coming up with a better way to judge defense

0

There has never been a time like this in the history of college football.

Offenses are off the charts good and defenses have virtually no chance to stop anyone, unless that defense is from Alabama or Clemson.

All this has led me to look for a better way to truly analyze what success is for a defense in college football. Yardage stats, third-down rates and points per game are all totally flawed stats that can very easily be manipulated to fit your agenda. There has to be a better way.

There is.

The premise is simple: the defense’s job is to keep the other team from scoring touchdowns.

Therefore, a successful defense possession is when you force a punt, stop someone on fourth down, create a turnover or force a field goal attempt.

I believe even if the field goal is made, three points are better then giving up seven so that is a win for the defense in modern day college football.

I have worked this formula out with a few teams from this season. Arkansas’ defense led by Paul Rhoads stopped opponents on offense 61 percent of the time. Alabama has stopped opposing offenses 88 percent of the time by our formula of what success is.

Georgia stopped opponents 87 percent of the time. Oklahoma in the non-defensive Big 12 conference had a defensive stop rate of 73 percent.

What about John Chavis as Texas A&M last year? Apparently, he’s coming to Arkansas, so how about his team last year in College Station? Chavis’ group had a 74{e1768d0eec022f908d772ba0c0274d97d05d220b4341147789bdb671ddb19707} defensive stop rate.

So what are my takeaways?

Defense still wins championships and it isn’t close. You can win a bunch of games with a stop rate in the mid-70’s, but if you want to make the playoff, you have to be closer to 90 percent.

Also, the scale looks to me a lot like the academic grading scale we are all used to seeing which makes it easy to read. Arkansas had a D- defense last season. That feels about right to me.

Texas A&M had a C level defense. That is pretty much in line with their results last year.

It probably isn’t perfect, but for me, it makes the picture a lot clearer of what defensive success is in modern day college football when it seems like the first team to 40 is going to win almost all of the time.

Two advance to 3-meter finals; Schultz takes crown

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — Freshman Brooke Schultz won the three-meter springboard title on Thursday at the Tennessee Diving Invitational, scoring a school record 383.40 to capture the crown.

It marks the third time in her freshman campaign that the Fayetteville native has broken the school record on the 3m. Overall, it is her fifth school record this season, breaking the 1m two times.

Schultz is the only diver to finish in the top-two of the 1m and 3m dive this week at the Tennessee Diving Invite, after recording a second-place finish in Wednesday’s 1m finals with a score of 325.70.

Of her eight 3m six-dive performances this season, Schultz has yet to finish outside of the top two, recording seven first-place finishes. Of her 16 six-dive efforts this season, Schultz has 13 first-place showings, having never finished outside the top three.

Senior Nicole Gillis also advanced to the 3m finals with Schultz, scoring a 296.45 in prelims to finish 10th. In the finals, she scored a 305.40 to improve three spots, finishing seventh.

“The three-meter was a great event for us with Nicole scoring over 300 points again and Brooke breaking her own school record with the win,” said head coach Neil Harper. “The platform event will be a challenge tomorrow but a good test, as we look to finish the invite strong.”

In the prelims, junior Marissa Green finished 25th, scoring a 233.50, while sophomore Caroline Welch finished 32nd with a score of 203.05.

The final day of competition from Knoxville will begin tomorrow at 10 a.m. with the platform.

SCHEDULE AND RESULTS
Wednesday, Jan. 3
1m Prelims
3rd – Schultz (295.10)
6th – Gillis (275.70)
24th – Green (231.60)
33rd – Welch (196.50)

1m Finals
2nd – Schultz (325.70)
7th – Gillis (281.55)

Thursday, Jan. 4
3m Prelims
2nd – Schultz (329.15)
10th – Gillis (296.45)
25th – Green (233.50)
32nd – Welch (203.05)

3m Finals
1st – Schultz (383.40 – SCHOOL RECORD)
7th – Gillis (305.40)

Friday, Jan. 5
Platform Finals – 10:00 a.m.

Examining the impact of Daniel Gafford

Examining the impact of Daniel Gafford

Daniel Gafford is arguably the most exciting freshman to watch in the SEC this season.

He has been integral in the Razorbacks’ 11-3 start and No. 22 national ranking.

Many draft boards have started to look at Gafford as a potential first round pick with his play and his measurables as well as his upside.

If he does indeed declare and keep his name in the draft in the spring, it will be disappointing for fans but it should also be solace that Arkansas can now recruit one-and-dones and point to Gafford as an example.

Let’s say he declares but doesn’t get the grade he wants and decides to stay. It’s almost a virtual lock that he will be a lottery pick in 2019. He’d basically be taking the Bobby Portis route.

Not only that, but Arkansas would make the NCAA Tournament next season for the third consecutive year for the first time since 2006-08.

Gafford, paired with the talented interior pieces they are bringing in with the 2018 crop, could make the 2018-19 Hogs one of, if not the SEC favorite.

By coming back, he could also vault his name into becoming one of the top 25 players in the history of the program. His freshman year will end up rivaling anybody that has ever put on the uniform.

Strong effort against highly-ranked Bulldogs falls short

STARKVILLE, Miss. — Arkansas suffered a Southeastern Conference road loss at No. 5/3 Mississippi State in Starkville, Mississippi, on Thursday.

The Razorbacks had three players in double figures paced by a 15-point effort from Jailyn Mason tying her season-best. Kiara Williams tied her career-high with 13 points and Devin Cosper added 13 points in the loss.

Arkansas shot well, at a 45.2{e1768d0eec022f908d772ba0c0274d97d05d220b4341147789bdb671ddb19707} clip hitting 28-of-62 shots in the game.A great effort, especially in the first half, kept Arkansas (10-5, 1-1 SEC) close to the Bulldogs (16-0, 2-0 SEC) early but an 8-0 run just before the break began to open the lead.

State won the game, 111-69, finishing with a 19-2 run in the final five minutes.

Arkansas opened the game with a quick 5-0 run behind a 3-pointer from Williams, the first of her career. The Razorbacks trailed by two, 22-20, at the end of the first quarter.

Although Arkansas’ offense continued to play well, the size difference in the paint was the difference in the game. The Bulldogs scored 46 points in the paint while the Razorbacks managed just 20 points inside.

Notes

• Kiara Williams had 11 points at the half. It is the second time of the season/career she has been in double-digits in the first 20 minutes.
• Kiara Williams tied her career-best with 13 points.
• Devin Cosper scored 13 points, scoring in double figures for the 13th time this season.
• Jailyn Mason finished with 15 points tying her season-best.

Up Next

Arkansas continues SEC play hosting Alabama on Sunday, Jan. 7, at 3 p.m., on the SEC Network.

The Razorbacks then play back-to-back conference road games traveling to Georgia and Auburn.

A&M hires Elko, so any day now for Chavis hiring?

0

We’ve heard John Chavis is already working on Fayetteville, but have absolutely zero evidence of that.

But he’s not at Texas A&M anymore.

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly let that one out of the bag Thursday afternoon on Twitter:

No other defensive coordinator candidates have surfaced for Chad Morris’ staff and the guess here is he’s going to announce the staff at once.

Here’s an educated guess at how the staff will look:

Head coach: Chad Morris
Offensive coordinator: Joe Craddock (also coaching quarterbacks)
Defensive coordinator: John Chavis (also coaching linebackers)

Offense

Running backs: Jeff Traylor
Tight ends: Barry Lunney, Jr.
Wide receiver: Justin Stepp
Offensive line: Dustin Fry

Defense

Defensive line-special teams: Steve Caldwell
Defensive line: John Scott
Secondary: Ron Cooper

Other names on defensive side mentioned are Terry Price from Texas A&M and Terry Joseph, although the positions are unclear.

Sources have indicated Arkansas State secondary coach Trooper Taylor won’t be coming to Arkansas and will continue to wear his cap backwards in Jonesboro.

Again, these are educated guesses and nothing official has been announced yet.

Anderson on Hogs going back on road again

Arkansas coach Mike Anderson met with the media to talk about going on the road again, this time to Auburn on Saturday.

Bud Light Morning Rush Podcast: Thursday