Let’s face it, you didn’t really expect Arkansas to be picked very high by the media at SEC Media Daze last week, did you?
Coaching changes that don’t particularly impress a lot of the media tend to do that. Many don’t feel Chad Morris is an upgrade over Bret Bielema. Those folks would also probably be surprised to learn a football is blown up and not stuffed.
But we’re not going to re-hash all of that.
To no one’s surprise, Alabama was the overwhelming favorite to win the West (and the league) with Georgia winning the east. I am making the same pick for the 27th year in a row … the Crimson Tide to win the West, Florida to win the East.
In case you’re wondering, I’ve been dead-on nine times and half-right 14 times. Since the Razorbacks came into the SEC in 1992, Florida has won the East 12 times and Alabama the West 12 times (in 2002 Alabama won the West, but Arkansas went to the title game because, well, the Tide were in the NCAA doghouse).
At the bottom of the West, the Hogs were the overwhelming choice. That actually doesn’t come as any kind of surprise whatsoever.
They won’t finish there.
Oh, Alabama should be picked to win the West, but here’s why we may see the most parity we’ve seen in the division for a number of years (that is, parity behind the Crimson Tide):
Auburn. It won’t be surprising if the Tigers finish lower than most are picking them because they have some gigantic question marks and we’ll find out if Gus Malzahn can repeat success. He hasn’t been able to do that in the past and, quite frankly, nobody at Auburn has.
Mississippi State. If new coach Joe Moorhead can follow through on what Dan Mullen built, the Bulldogs will be a force to contend with. The problem, though, is a schedule that has Florida-Auburn-LSU-Texas A&M in a row. The Bulldogs have to come out of that no worse than 2-2. Then they play Alabama before finishing against Arkansas and Ole Miss.
LSU. The Tigers are my pick for the team to have the biggest collapse, although nobody will understand Ed Orgeron’s explanations for it. I’m not convinced Steve Ensminger is a championship-caliber coordinator and will coach not to lose instead of winning.
Texas A&M. Jimbo Fisher is trying to accomplish what other big-name coaches coming into College Station haven’t in the last 65 years and that’s take what everyone thinks is great potential and convert that to a championship. Don’t forget Jackie Sherrill and Dennis Franchione were highly successful before coming to the Aggies.
Arkansas. The Hogs could be the surprise team in the league with just a couple of breaks. The talent is not as bad as everyone thinks, in my opinion, and they are going to look different and be faster than last season. And that was a year people tend to forget could have been an 8-4 season and Morris would still be at SMU.
Ole Miss. The Rebels will have a fairly decent passing game, but the defense won’t be able to stop anybody. Some that have seen things up close in Oxford say it may be the worst defense Ole Miss has ever put on a field.
It’s too early for the official prediction. Practices haven’t eve started yet.
We’ll start to find out in a little over a week if what we thought coming out of spring practice is still valid.
And that is this team will be better than most think.
