Joe Lunardi didn’t shake Arkansas this week. He just adjusted the math.
In ESPN’s latest Bracketology, the Razorbacks slipped from a five seed to a six. It’s a change, but not a crisis. Arkansas remains comfortably inside the NCAA Tournament picture with plenty of basketball left.
The Hogs are 16-6 overall and 6-3 in SEC play, which places them right in the middle of the national conversation. That’s not glamorous, but it’s steady.
There are nine regular-season games still to be played before the postseason begins. That’s nine chances to move up, nine chances to hold ground, and nine chances to complicate things.
Lunardi updates his bracket twice each week, on Tuesdays and Fridays. This season, he added a visual trend marker to show momentum.
Right now, Arkansas is trending down, though only slightly. It’s not a steep fall. It’s more like a reminder that February doesn’t let teams sit still.
That trend reflects a week that delivered both encouragement and frustration.
Arkansas went 1-1 last week, earning a road win at Oklahoma before losing its first home game of the season to Kentucky.
The split explains the seed line move without much debate.
Location keeps Razorbacks in familiar territory
Despite the small slide, Lunardi didn’t send Arkansas far away.
In his latest projection, the Razorbacks are slated to open the NCAA Tournament in Oklahoma City. That’s roughly a four-hour drive from Fayetteville, a location that feels comfortable by March standards.
Seed lines get headlines, but geography matters. Fans travel better when the road feels manageable, and Oklahoma City fits that bill.
The projected pod includes Miami, Nebraska, Portland State, Texas A&M, Saint Mary’s, Houston, and Navy. It’s a group filled with programs Arkansas knows, or at least recognizes.
According to the bracket, the Hogs would open against Miami in the Round of 64. Win that, and the next opponent would be the winner of Nebraska vs. Portland State.
Nebraska’s presence adds an interesting layer to the projection.
The Cornhuskers are listed as a three seed, but history hasn’t been kind to them in March. Nebraska has reached the NCAA Tournament eight times and has never won a game.
One of those losses came against Arkansas in 1998, when the Razorbacks won 74-65 in Boise.
That history doesn’t guarantee anything, but it lingers.
Of course, Nebraska would need to advance first, something it hasn’t managed to do yet.
Familiar opponents line projected path
If Arkansas’s bracket looks familiar, that’s because it is.
Texas A&M, an SEC opponent, is also projected to play in Oklahoma City. The two programs will have already met at least once, with a Feb. 25 home game at Bud Walton Arena on the schedule.
The Razorbacks have also already seen Houston, a projected two seed, earlier this season during non-conference play. That game provides context if paths cross again.
Bracket projections like clean lines, but March rarely follows them.
Miami also brings a new look this season.
Last year, Arkansas defeated the Hurricanes in the SEC/ACC Challenge on the road. That Miami team finished 7-24, and Jim Larranaga stepped down mid-season.
This year, the Hurricanes are under new leadership.
Jai Lucas took over the program and has Miami pushing for an NCAA Tournament bid in the ACC.
Lucas isn’t unfamiliar with Arkansas either.
During his playing career from 2007 to 2011, he suited up for Texas and Florida, going 2-1 against the Razorbacks in those seasons.
March tends to remember those details.
February still controls bracket math
None of Lunardi’s projections are locked.
Arkansas still has nine regular-season games remaining, plus the SEC Tournament, to reshape its résumé. A strong run could move the Razorbacks back up a seed line. A stumble could pull them lower.
For now, the Hogs remain firmly in the field, with location working in their favor and no urgent pressure attached to their number.
The six line isn’t a comfort zone. It’s a checkpoint.
Arkansas gets a brief pause before its next opportunity to move the needle.
The Razorbacks are coming off a midweek bye and will travel to Starkville this weekend to face Mississippi State.
Tipoff is scheduled for 11 a.m., with the game airing on ESPN or ESPN2.
It’s another chance to nudge the arrow.
In February, that’s all teams can ask for.
