ANDY’S PICKS: Can Hogs get ‘must-win’ game against Bulldogs?

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — You can go ahead and make whatever confident statement you want about Arkansas’ game Saturday with Mississippi State. Compare all the analytics and stuff you want, but the games often don’t follow along those things, whether you want to know it or not.

Both of these teams have more questions and answers by the halfway point of the season. Nothing everybody planned back in August for the Razorbacks has seemed to fall into line like expected … with the exception of the defense appearing to be vastly improved. Sure, they’ve given up some big plays but that’s the nature of college football these days.

Rules favor the offense, which makes Zach Arnett’s decisions where to go with the Bulldogs’ offense since taking over for the late Mike Leach. They had one of the most explosive offenses in the league with Will Rogers, who has run the Air Raid basically his entire life. Now he’s having to learn something completely new and the result has seen some struggles.

Think it’s going to be a cakewalk for the Hogs? They still have some things to figure out, too, especially on offense. With top running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders sounding more and more like he’s out for the rest of the year, the burden falls on quarterback KJ Jefferson to carry things on his shoulder.

All of that sounds good, but considering he hasn’t made it through a complete season as the starter without getting banged up enough to miss at least one game it’s a cause for concern. The Bulldogs may not be good, but they are very physical and stick to the time-honored traditions in the state of Mississippi.

That simple tradition has held true at Starkville and Oxford. Ole Miss is more interested in winning the party after whatever the final score is while Mississippi State simply views every game as a full-blown fistfight and they want to beat up the other team, regardless of outcome. None of that has changed in over 100 years.

Hog fans might want to say they are desperate, but so are the Bulldogs. It’s also a morning kickoff, which seems to favor the visiting teams, who always appear locked and loaded for them.

Then there’s that “hope” word we’ve heard from Sam Pittman and the Hogs’ players this week. While you may not find that cause to raise an eyebrow, it always has with me. It doesn’t exactly invoke a lot of confidence or a sound of confidence. Pittman gets somewhat of a pass because coaches have to do that. They don’t want to give anyone a headline for motivationn.

The game will kick off at 11 a.m. on ESPN. You can listen to the game at HitThatLine.com in select markets and on the radio at ESPN Arkansas 99.7 in Fayetteville, 95.3 in the River Valley, 96.3 in Hot Springs and 104.3 in Harrison-Mountain Home.

Arkansas Gameday show on ESPN Arkansas starts at 6 a.m. with Tye Richardson and Christian Johnston presented by The Stadium Shoppe on Razorback Rd. and KC Insurance Partners. The IMG/Leerfield pregame show begins at 8 a.m. with Phil Elson hosting joined by Rick Schaeffer and the on-air broadcasting crew.

Hog Reaction on ESPN Arkansas will follow the broadcast postgame of the network (probably 3:30 or so). That will be taking phone calls with views from Hog fans with Tye Richardson, Derek Ruscin and Olivia Couch, presented by the Teague Law Firm and Signature Bank.

Since Peter hasn’t submitted a thing, he may be forfeiting again like he did the first week of the season. It’s tough coasting this much through a college football season, but he’ll probably have another shot at witty things.

Mississippi State at Arkansas (-6.5): The Hogs will have to continue the fast starts they’ve had the last few weeks, which may something far too realistic for fans to hope continues. If you’ve watched the Razorbacks enough over the last several years you know the most consistent thing is inconsistency. The Hogs should have better players that are good enough to pull out a another close win in this one and Cam Little has won this matchup before. Hogs 31, Bulldogs 28 

Tennessee at Alabama (-9): This has not been a normal Nick Saban-the type group of Crimson Tide and everybody is expecting the Vols to be better than last year when they knocked out Alabama in Knoxville. That’s not where this one’s being played and Tennessee isn’t as good as last year, either. But the Tide’s defense is still pretty good. Crimson Tide 28, Vols 24

South Carolina at Missouri (-7.5): It’s probably fascinating for Hog fans to see the Tigers already bowl-eligible and Arkansas to still be four wins short … and a key matchup against Mizzou at the end of the year. The Gamecocks have been vastly improved and can put points on the board with Spencer Rattler having probably the second-best season of anybody else in the league behind LSU’s Jayden Daniels. And it may be time for the the Tigers to have a down week. Gamecocks 34, Tigers 31

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Ole Miss (-6.5) at Auburn: This one has all sorts of old storylines to be dredged up about Tigers coach Hugh Freeze previously being with the Rebels. Half the fans in the stadium won’t remember a whole lot about that. It was six years ago and the news cycle in sports doesn’t run that long. Freeze is improving Auburn, but Ole Miss is making a run at something special and it’s really kind of hard to figure out how they are doing it because their wins haven’t always been pretty. Still, though, it should be good enough to down the Tigers. Rebels 37, Auburn 28

Army at LSU (-32): This game may be a bettor’s dream. Oh, not that Army’s going to win the game because that probably isn’t going to happen, but that the Tigers’ defense can make it happen. Zach Arns said on Ruscin & Zach on Thursday it may take LSU until the second quarter to figure out where the Black Knights have the ball on offense. But that probably won’t be enough unless you’re betting the line. Tigers 38, Army 24