ANDY’S PICKS: LSU not perfect, but then neither are Hogs this year

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Let’s not get overly cocky ahead of Saturday night’s game against LSU on Saturday night.

Sure, the Tigers haven’t looked particularly impressive on their way to a 5-1 record but you might want to look a little deeper. After opening with a loss to USC that was more understandable than you’d think, the Tigers have done about what a team ranked No. 8 in the country should do.

This year, teams aren’t particularly putting up whopping scores. The rising tide across college football has raised all boats.

LSU hasn’t finished out of the Top 10 in the 247Sports composite of rankings since 2022 and that was No. 12. They have a lot of good players. Watching replays of their 29-26 overtime win over a very good Ole Miss team, the Tigers figured it out about halfway through.

And don’t forget, the Tigers weren’t dominating at all in 2007 and the Razorbacks beat them in Houston Nutt’s last game. LSU went on to win the national championship and the Hogs hired Bobby Petrino, lost Darren McFadden and Felix Jones and had about three good years for the next 17 years. We don’t know the result of this season yet.

Now we come to this season and Arkansas fans are on the equivalent of a sugar high after a 19-14 win over Tennessee. Fans and the media are confident right now by their reasoning that it’s a game they will win. I heard a lot of the same things in 2006 and 2011. Everybody was talking about getting rid of Nutt in 2007.

Maybe the most concerning thing to me is LSU isn’t dominating. The Hogs aren’t, either, despite that win. Having Taylen Green back at quarterback probably still doesn’t give them an edge on paper. The Tigers’ Garrett Nussmeier has been around longer than some professors.

He is like a lot of quarterbacks that win games and championships. He usually doesn’t make mistakes and finds ways to win games while doing noting particularly impressive, which is a lot like the quarterbacks that have won the most at Arkansas. Greg Thomas has won the most games as a Razorback quarterback and was the first African-American starter. Bill Montgomery was second.

Both just knew how to win games by the bunches. Green may be able to do that, but that’s assuming facts not in evidence at this time.

Coming off that injury that forced an early exit from the win over the Vols, he’s not on the availability report and the assumption is he’ll start and play. how he holds up to get hit by an LSU defense that has faced some good teams and even managed to slow down the Rebels’ high-flying offense enough to win.

For whatever reason, I just don’t see the Hogs coming out on top in this one. LSU 31, Hogs 27

Pete Morgan sent me his picks from last week and he needed the week off. Since I have some cushion, he will have a chance to catch up a little this week.

Auburn at (19) Missouri – For whatever reason, teams all across the league tends to play close games. The entire league is better and everybody has some really good players now. A surprising number of games are coming down to the last possession. Missouri by 6.

South Carolina at Oklahoma – Pete somehow thinks the Gamecocks aren’t that bad this year. They are just good enough to get folks iterested, but they probably still aren’t convinced they can win big games. They have looked good and really bad at times. The Sooners aren’t a championship team, but not that bad this year. They probably will by the time they land on the Hogs’ schedule. Sooners by 4.

(7) Alabama at (11) Tennessee – This is the type game that proves my whole point about the parity of the league. Both teams are coming in with questions. The Crimson Tide lost to Vandebilt and the Vols got beat by the Hogs. Neither one of those things were supposed to happen in anybody’s preseason projections. In my view, though, it feels like Tennessee is not on the verge of imploding. Vols by 2.

(14) Texas A&M at Mississippi State – The Aggies are one of the most surprising teams in the league this year, but probably shouldn’t be. A&M didn’t lose everybody they rounded up when Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban had their whole little hillbilly feud a couple of years ago. Mike Elko is a good coach and has never had a team with this much talent. The Bulldogs have some players, but can’t figure out how to get it all together early. Aggies by 9.

Ball State at Vanderbilt – This is Pete’s “Good Grief Game”: This is one I agree with this time. The only surprise is if it is close at halftime. Vandy by 30.

GAME OF THE WEEK

(5) Georgia at (1) Texas – This is not the same Bulldogs’ team we’ve seen the last couple of years. It’s also not the same group of Longhorns, either. There is no shortage of talent at Texas and this one is big enough to get their full attention this week. They should be completely focused and the Bulldogs will go join the group hoping two losses can still make the playoffs. Longhorns by 6.

Kentucky at Florida – Considering the way this season has gone, we’ll probably have a game going like everyone expects. Florida is actually favored this week and I think they cover the 1.5-point spread. You may wan tot put that Billy Napier fired talk on hold for at leasta week. Gators by 5.