What has to happen for Hogs to win 9+ this year

As the Talking Season rapidly comes to a close, everyone is predicting how Arkansas will finish the year.

I’ve said it before, but there is a case to be made to predict nine wins … and a case to be made for five wins. This one is only about the higher numbers.

Yes, the Razorbacks could come in at nine wins and maybe go as high as 11.

There is no universe where enough alcohol or drugs are available to predict 12 wins. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but to predict it is an entirely different thing.

Here’s what has to happen, in my opinion, for the Hogs to get to nine wins or more:

1. Does Austin Allen have a record season. What he did last year isn’t going to be good enough.

Yes, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC, but he’s not the best in the eyes of most people. He might be if he was allowed to make more plays with his legs, but that’s a different argument.

No, he’s got to manage every game almost perfectly, utilizing Bret Bielema’s system to shorten the game. That means checking down to short receivers to give them a chance for first downs instead of forcing the ball past open receivers to make a big play.

2. Will receivers become playmakers? With Jared Cornelius the only proven receiver returning, there are more questions than answers in every receiver position.

Can they turn an interception into an incompletion? Can they make the catch over the middle and hold it after being drilled? Can they adapt routes to get the first down instead of coming up a yard short?

Everybody looks good in practice catching the ball.

Can they make a big play when they HAVE to have one?

3. Has the offensive line improved? It is hard for Allen’s experience and skill to be showcased if he’s dodging big men who are angry at him all day.

I don’t care how tough you are, sooner or later it starts to affect you. It did Allen last year, whether anybody wants to admit it or not.

You can bet they will face 11 straight opponents who find out if the line still can’t pass protect (I’m leaving Florida A&M out of the mix).

4. Will the linebackers make plays? Perhaps the mirror of the wide receivers on the defensive side is at linebacker, which was exposed beyond belief last year.

On the eye test they don’t appear to be that much improved physically from last year. But there are more of them on the field.

Can they stop the problem of teams hitting the edge against them, then be able to catch them instead of watching their number get smaller as they run away from them?

5. Can the defensive line let the linebackers make plays? When you see great linebacker play it’s usually the result of great line play.

Every defense created in the last 60 years has attempted to figure out a way where the linemen can cause the offense to use more than one person on every defender “in the box.”

In a 3-4 with today’s offenses that becomes even more crucial. Arkansas’ linebackers aren’t overwhelmingly large. That means they better be fast and the defensive line, make running nearly impossible and pressure the quarterback.

6. Can the kicking game win a game? In Bielema’s time at Arkansas, the kicking game has been an adventure in one area or another every year.

They haven’t won many games. Dan Skipper blocking a field goal against TCU last year might qualify, but then it’s offset by the blocked field goal by Mississippi State the previous year.

For some reason, something has misfired in the kicking game every year that seemingly has caused issues. That doesn’t mean a missed 30-yard field goal at the end of the game, but a short punt, a busted kick coverage or no threats in the return game have had a tendency to show up at the worst time.

Will the Hogs finally get a kicking game that wins?

You’ll notice running backs and secondary aren’t on this list. Simple, really. If the questions above aren’t answered positively neither group has a chance to be highly successful.

Running backs can’t run without linemen. Defensive backs can’t cover people forever. Look at the best ones in those positions and there’s usually a person in the lines in front of them that are all-league material.

If Arkansas gets positive answers in these categories, then nine wins or more is a real possibility. They’ll need a break or two along the way, but that’s the case with every team.

Yes, nine wins is possible.

But I’m not ready to predict it.