Almost as soon as Arkansas’ NIT bid was announced speculation began on the status of Hogs sophomore big man Daniel Gafford.
Arkansas coach Mike Anderson made the news official Monday morning that Gafford is declaring for the NBA Draft and skipping Arkansas’ NIT game at Providence Tuesday night.
Gafford’s decision to declare for the draft isn’t a surprise after he returned to Fayetteville even after discovering he was considered a lock to be drafted in the first round of the 2018 draft. He’s only heightened his current draft potential with a dominating campaign.
Losing the All-SEC forward for the NIT is a big blow for a team that has endured a roller coaster of inconsistency with one of the top players in the country.
It may be exactly what it needs to prepare for next season, however.
As the debate on Coach Mike Anderson’s job status has heated up the past few weeks one of the big questions to consider is, “Will next year be better?” We will get a glimpse of that answer Tuesday night. Going on the road without its star player will show how much this inexperienced team has grown up and what could carry over to next year.
Barring transfers (And there are rumors swirling about that, too.) the Razorbacks would return virtually the same roster minus Gafford and add heralded redshirt freshman guard Justice Hill.
The problem Gafford’s departure presents is he is the only low-post scoring threat Arkansas has. He also is the team’s leading scorer with nearly 17 points per game. It’s doubtful that forwards Reggie Chaney, Gabe Osabuohien or Adrio Bailey can step into those shoes.
That means that more scoring will be needed on the perimeter. Freshman Isaiah Joe impressed this year by setting the record for most made three-pointers by a Hogs freshman. Joe is averaging 14 points per game and could be a candidate to pour in close to 20 per contest next season with more touches. The key could be sophomore Mason Jones, who has been streaky at times. He is averaging 13.6 points per game with 3.9 rebounds and 2.9 assist per contest.
Anderson needs them to form a duo similar to what former Hogs guards Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon combined for last season as they led the Hogs to the NCAA Tournament while both averaging close to 20 points per game knocking down big shots.
Junior Jalen Harris has become an effective floor leader averaging 5.5 assists per game, but he would need to score more next year to make up for Gafford’s lack of production. Perhaps, Hill could also add scoring punch at the point spot.
Freshmen guards Desi Sills and Keyshawn Embery-Simpson have shown flashes and seem ready for bigger roles next year after gaining a lot of experience. They could also help add potency to the Hogs offense.
Bailey and Chaney haven’t scored or rebounded well enough to be confident about next year. Those players’ development should be Anderson’s top priority. He needs someone on this team averaging close to a double-double. Those two should be able to grab close 10 rebounds and 10 points per game on garbage baskets in the paint without Gafford.
Gafford averages 8.7 rebounds per game. Jones’ 3.9 boards per game is second. The big men and defensive-minded Osabuhohien will have to rebound better.
With Gafford a glaring weakness in the post, I wouldn’t bank on Arkansas being a force in the SEC next year. If this team doesn’t make the big leap it needs to be an NCAA Tournament team that could spell the end of the Anderson Era.
That makes Tuesday night more important than just an NIT game. It marks the beginning of a new chapter for a team that Anderson desperately needs improve drastically to win big immediately.
