ANDY’S PICKS: Looking at numbers shows why picking Hogs difficult

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Yes, I’m well aware Arkansas’ game tonight won’t be played on paper. That’s actually good because looking at it there would be no way to give the Razorbacks a shot against Tennessee.

The Volunteers aren’t ranked No. 4 in the nation by accident. But considering the strange things that have happened in this game over the years, nothing would really surprise me.

The whole series started that way in the 1971 Liberty Bowl. The 18th-ranked Razorbacks were flying under the radar a little but Joe Ferguson was lighting up scoreboards. No. 9 Tennessee was supposed to be one of the best teams in the country, ranked No. 9 in the nation.

Besides, the Vols were billed as having the best free safety in the country with Bobby Majors patrolling the middle. The Hogs got the first touchdown when wide receiver Jim Hodge got him out of position after Arkansas wide receivers coach Raymond Berry noticed something and he caught a 36-yard touchdown falling down in the end zone.

It was a defensive slugfest, but far from a masterpiece. Louis Campbell kept intercepting passes and Bill McClard was kicking field goals. The Hogs had a field goal taken off the board when tight end Bobby Nichols was called for holding by SEC official Preston Watts, despite it was Nichols that was grabbed by a Tennessee player and tossed to the ground.

Late in the game, Arkansas was trying to drive and hang on to a 13-7 lead, but Jon Richardson fumbled and since guard Tom Mabry recovered, fans thought the drive would continue. Watts, an SEC official, gave the ball to the Vols, they scored and the Razorbacks lost, 14-13.

It was the second time in my life SEC officials had made calls that were strange, even to a kid. The first was 1960 when referee Tommy Bell called a field goal by Ole Miss good that was obviously wide. He went to the NFL and because a legendary official there, but wasn’t calling anymore Arkansas games if Frank Broyles ever had anything to say about it.

After the obvious mistakes in the Liberty Bowl, the bowl games changed to officials from a conference not affiliated with either school. That one was a split crew from the SEC and Southwest Conference. The results were fairly obvious.

Then there’s the Cotton Bowl after the 1989 season, then the Hogs’ first game as a member of the SEC with a huge upset win after losing to The Citadel got Jack Crowe fired a week earlier.

Like I said, strange things tend to happen in this game that nobody saw coming. Then, again, there have been some very predictable outcomes through the 1990’s and early 2000’s when Tennessee just did what they wanted.

One stat, though, I keep going back to is behind my pick this time. Tennessee’s defense has given up nearly the same number of yards combined for all the games the Hogs average per game. Simply, the Vols’ defense is more talented than the Razorbacks’ offense.

The Hogs only have a 17.8% chance of winning, according to the ESPN predictor. That actually sounds about right.

Vols 38, Hogs 21

After a huge week across the SEC last week, this lineup of games looks kinda dull. If you don’t think Alabama’s win over Georgia was epic, quit watching football. Ole Miss faceplanted against Kentucky to show what happens in this league if you get complacent and lazy about penalties. It was a great week.

(9) Missouri at (25) Texas A&M: Pay attention to this one after the first quarter. That lets the initial enthusiasm of the chaos of College Station wear down a little bit.  Missouri is a better team and I still think the Aggies are living off the enthusiasm, although they do have a more-talented defensive front. Combined with the enthusiasm plus just a general dislike for Missouri, I’ll go with an upset. Aggies 28, Tigers 24

(12) Ole Miss at South Carolina: While the Gamecocks are playing better than most folks expected, Ole Miss has spent a week getting re-focused after a shocking 20-17 loss to Kentucky. No one saw that coming. Don’t get fooled by South Carolina’s 31-6 win in the second week. That game has absolutely nothing to do with this week and they will have it clocking. Rebels 31, Gamecocks 21

Auburn at (5) Georgia: “Good Grief Game”: Not really sure this is the correct call for the Good Grief Game. It is the oldest rivalry in the South and a whopping amount of games complete defying logic. This is one of those where you truly just hope your pick works out because all logic says go with Georgia after their loss to Alabama. Tigers coach Hugh Freeze probably isn’t on a seat as hot as folks think becauseif they fire him this year nobody is going to want to take that job. Bulldogs 34, Tigers 31

(1) Alabama at Vanderbilt: Now this is truly the good grief game. Vanderbilt may have gotten some publicity for being decent in non-conference and taking Missouri to overtime, I’m still not buying into it. The talent difference in the rosters makes the biggest difference, though. It won’t be close Crimson Tide by 51, Commodores 21

UCF at Florida: Former Razorback quarterback KJ Jefferson won in The Swamp last year. It was the only SEC game the Hogs won, too. Everybody is viewing that as a positive for Gus Malzahn’s team, but it also works out well for Florida. They have tape on him now and know exactly what he can and can’t do. Florida, by all reports, also had a tremendous week of practice. I have no idea what that means, but you don’t hear it that often and I’ve learned when you hear superlatives being thrown around about it, pay attention because it usually actually means something. Gators 34, Knights 31.