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Forcing a final prediction on how season plays out
Too many questions, too few answers which leaves a guess of half and half on wins and losses as we narrow down to the start of the season.
This is one of those nearly impossible seasons to predict in advance.
But with the opening game just a couple of days away, it’s time to throw something out there and see how it plays out.
Arkansas could finish with nine or even 10 wins if everything lined up and the ghost of Frank Broyles could provide divine intervention.
I think that’s what it would take, though.
To be honest, I don’t see that much improvement in this team. That’s just being honest. Oh, I heard the talk about this player or that one getting better and that’s what Bret Bielema built his reputation on at Wisconsin.
That was in the Big 10 at a time when only one school mattered: Ohio State.
A lot of the talking heads point to three straight Big Ten championships and, unfortunately, even that isn’t quite what it seems.
In 2010, Wisconsin did manage to beat Ohio State for the only time under Bielema. That kicked the Buckeyes to the Sugar Bowl and Razorback fans know how that turned out.
In 2011, the Badgers shared the Big Ten West title with Penn State. They even got freight-trained by a 6-6 Ohio State team, reeling from the Jim Tressel fallout. But they did get to the Rose Bowl
In 2012, the only way to say it is Wisconsin backed into the Big Ten Championship game where they destroyed Nebraska before Bielema took the Arkansas job the next week. They were actually third in their own division with a 4-4 record, but Ohio State and Penn State were on probation and couldn’t play in the postseason.
Out of three straight conference titles people point to, none were outright and they managed to outscore Michigan State to go to the Rose Bowl and lose to Oregon.
And I hate pointing that out because I really like Bielema. I absolutely hate it, but those are the facts of the matter.
Now he’s at Arkansas in a much tougher league and it’s not playing out the way Bielema figured it would back in December of 2012 when he took the job.
As he’s pointed out several times, he’s in the fifth year and it’s time to start winning games instead of just talking about it.
He knows he’s on the hot seat these days, unfortunately.
Having said all of that and ignoring the national folks (who really don’t know more about the Hogs than the average fan on the street), this team has issues.
Oh, I’ve heard that Bielema wants a ground-and-pound offense, but the guess here is he’s realized that ain’t gonna happen in Fayetteville. He may try to keep talking himself into believe it, but he simply can’t recruit good enough players to do that.
Which is why the Allen brothers have put up some gawdy passing numbers.
It’s also the problem for this year’s team. There is a serious lack of established playmakers coming back.
I don’t know about you, but that has always concerned me. Don’t tell me how good they look in practice (although in fairness that’s all anyone can go on at this point).
Plus, the defense hasn’t shown me anything to make me think they will be better. Certain aspects might be better, but there’s nothing to go on there, either.
The bottom line? I’m always leery of a team when the coaches talk more about character and intelligence than speed and playmaking.
Okay, for the predictions. Remember, this is what I think (well, kinda) and not what is hoped for. All of us in the media would like to cover an Arkansas team in the playoffs.
Guaranteed wins
I know. Nobody wants to guarantee anything and coaches instinctively recoil when it happens, but, let’s face it, if the Hogs lose any of these there will be more issues to discuss than my predictions.
- Florida A&M, 2. New Mexico State, 3. Coastal Carolina
Likely losses
These are the games where it’s a good bet right now the Hogs will be hard-pressed to win and nobody will pick them to win at this time of the year.
- Alabama, 2. Auburn, 3. LSU
The rest
That leaves half the schedule to be played out and that’s the only way it can happen. In honesty, any of these games can go either way based on how things develop during the course of the season.
Wins: Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Missouri
Losses: TCU, South Carolina, Mississippi State
As I said those final pair of predictions could go either way. Just as we don’t know much about the Hogs at this point, we know less about those six teams.
So the prediction here is 6-6.
And, much like Congress, I reserve the right to revise and extend these predictions as the season develops.
As for Bielema?
No predictions on the consequences of a 6-6 record.
